Orioles and Lobster

JTrea81's Offseason Plan

2010-11-06T14:05:00.001-07:00

Well we have another offseason in front of us and the O's are showing promise and seem to be ready to take the next step. Which makes these comments from MacPhail in the Sun so annoying:

"Grow the pitching. It's one of things we need to do well here," MacPhail said. "Look at the reigning world champions. That strategy has been successful in San Francisco, and it can be in Baltimore."

"Our philosophy hasn't changed," MacPhail said. "You may get a deal done early, but by and large, those deals usually occur if a player wanted to return to his former club and they are able to work out something prior to, or shortly after, free agency starts. Or those early deals are preemptive strikes by clubs where the player and the agent decide that they are not going to get better than this and they get it done quickly. We would be much more likely to do the former rather than the latter."

Ah yes, Andy MacPhail who is as timid as ever and is trying to point to another team as the example the Orioles should follow - first the Rays and now the Giants. Yes, if players overachieve good things can happen. But you can't count on that and you can't be passive in free agency. That's what losers do.

So that leads me to Step 1:

1. Fire Andy MacPhail.

Well now that's out of the way, we can get to actually building a winner.

2. Offer 4/68 to Adrian Beltre at 12:01 AM Sunday. - It's time to show the Orioles are serious. No more of this waiting for the market. I'm setting the market. If you want to take Beltre from the Orioles, you are going to have to go all in and Beltre is going to have to turn down some serious cash if he doesn't want to play in Baltimore. I'm betting he'll take it, eventually though the offer may have to go up slightly.

3. At the GM Meetings trade Chris Tillman, Josh Bell and David Hernandez to the Brewers for Prince Fielder (sans extension). Forget about Gonzalez. Fielder will come much cheaper, and is still a bonified threat in the middle of the lineup. He lead MLB in walks and in a down year was still worth 4.1 WAR. I don't extend him because I'll likely be able to re-sign him for less than an extension when he hits FA.

By the Winter Meetings I expect to have my corner IF solved. Next step - SS.

4. Pick up one of likely non tenders - Bartlett or Hardy. Sign them to a 2 year deal.

5. Re-sign Koji Uehara to a 1 year $5 million deal with an option for 2012 to be the closer

6. Sign Eric Hinske to a 1 year $2.5 million deal with an option for 2012. Hinske was a solid option off the bench for the Braves and could do the same for Baltimore

7. Sign Jason Varitek to a 1 year $3 million deal with a team option for 2012. The Orioles need a solid backup catcher so they don't burn out Matt Wieters. Varitek is the best that's out there, and he is a good bat off the bench as well.

8. Sign Jerry Hairston to a 1 year 2.5 million deal to backup the middle IF spots.

9. Sign George Sherrill to a minor league deal with a ST invite after he's non-tendered. Sherrill got lit up against RH hitters but was still excellent vs. LH hitters. I think he could be this year's Ohman.

10. Trade Mike Gonzalez to the Yankees for AJ Burnett and $10 million. The Yankees need a LH reliever and the Orioles need a SP. I think Burnett will do better getting out of NY and he's wanted to pitch in Baltimore. Gonzalez isn't going to be worth the salary the Orioles are paying him. Burnett would be about $13 million a year, which would be about the going rate for a SP with his background.

Your 2011 Orioles:

Lineup:

2B Roberts
RF Markakis
3B Beltre
1B Fielder
CF Jones
DH Scott
C Wieters
LF Pie
SS Hardy/Bartlett

Bench:

OF Reimold
IF Hinske
C Varitek
IF Hairston

Rotation:

SP Guthrie
SP Matusz
SP Burnett
SP Bergesen
SP Arrieta

Bullpen:

LR Patton
MR Hoey
MR Berken
MR Sherrill
MR VandenHurk
SU Johnson
CL Uehara

That team is a 90 game winner on paper IMO and the only huge contract you give out is for Beltre at 4/68. Eventually Fielder will have to be re-signed, but you will already have Beltre and the core of the lineup under contract. You might need to still pick up another arm for the bullpen but that's about it until next offseason

It's these kinds of moves that the Orioles need to make to set themselves up to be a winner. They probably won't make the playoffs in 2011, but might be able to if all goes right, and they won't have to add much at all before 2012 to finally be a playoff team.

Line 'em up

2010-02-07T09:16:00.000-08:00

The Orioles lineup has been debated on countless sites, so I figure I'd offer my attempt at maximizing production to start the season.

Roberts and Izturis at #1 and #9 are pretty much a given, as is Markakis at the #3 spot as that is where DT wants to put him, though he's said Nick could hit in the #2 spot as well.

Nolan Reimold is my #2 hitter because of the power and patience he can provide at the top of the order and the fact that he's not a baseclogger either showing decent speed on the basepaths. He's a nice fit at #2 as he and Roberts can set the table for Markakis.

The cleanup spot however is crucial, and unfortunately Andy didn't give Trembley much to work with here. He doesn't have a true cleanup hitter on the team, yet. Now one of Jones, Wieters and Reimold could be that guy, but you do not want any of them swinging for the fences to start the season. There's no need to screw up any of those guys because if they fail, the Orioles are DONE.
There's no backup in the minors and Andy hasn't acquired any help for them in the majors. It's all on them.

Now with that taken into consideration, Luke Scott is my choice for cleanup hitter. He's more expendable that those other guys, and as he's usually better in the first half of the season, the Orioles can take advantage of his power. As he fades, one of the younger guys will most likely have taken off and can take his place. But they don't need that pressure to start.

Jonesy is my #5 hitter because I think that's his best spot with his power and lack of getting on base compared to Reimold and Wieters.

Wieters bats #6, but eventually I think he'll take the #3 spot from Markakis as our most consistent hitter.

Tejada is learning a new position so why bat him high in the order? Players who are learning a new position typically also struggle in that season so Tejada probably won't be as productive to start IMO. But I think he can still provide some nice consistency average wise at the bottom of the order.

Atkins is a reclamation project, so #8 is where he goes until he plays his way off the team, or heats up to justify a move up in the lineup.

So there you have it. To recap:

2B Roberts
LF Reimold
RF Markakis
DH Scott
CF Jones
C Wieters
3B Tejada
1B Atkins
SS Izturis

Eventually I expect the lineup to shake out like this:

2B Roberts
RF Markakis
C Wieters
LF Reimold
CF Jones
DH Scott
3B Tejada
1B Atkins
SS Izturis

We'll have to see how Spring Training goes, but that's my best lineup possibility for now.

Angelos doesn't believe in Andy's plan?

2010-02-02T20:10:00.000-08:00

That's sure what it seems like in his latest quote with MLB.com, but we'll get to that.

First of all the article is entitled "Orioles ready to compete in 2010"

Yeah, right...

But moving on, you've got some positive Orioles quotes in here from Andy MacPhail, who has been selling his plan of hope and competing with homegrown players and taking down the Yankee and Red Sox juggernauts:

Tampa Bay, with much lower revenues, a small payroll and quality young players, proved it can beat the Yankees and Red Sox, and play in the World Series.

"Our feeling is if they can do it, we can do it as well," he said. "Last year we showed progress of an individual nature, but moving forward as a team is what we have to do."

Sounds good right?

I asked Angelos on Monday what he thinks happened.

Why?

Ruh roh, get ready for it...

He believes franchises such as the Orioles -- unable to generate huge revenues -- cannot remain competitive, or at least stay even with teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox.

"It's a question of how much money you can generate," he said. "Once in a while there is an exception to that rule, but it cannot be sustained year-to year."

SPLOOOOOOOOSH!!!!

Yes that is the sound of Peter Angelos throwing a bucket of cold water on the hopes and dreams of all Orioles fans that thought we were going to have a perennial contender under Andy MacPhail.

Not on his watch. Peter would apparently rather use the Orioles as a sacrificial lamb for the greater good of baseball, to prove that teams like the Orioles simply can't compete year in and year out with those damn Yankees and Red Sox. And to do that, he simply can't give MacPhail those resources to compete. It would damage his case...

And we all know how Peter hates to lose a case...

So it seems we as Orioles fans have been sold a bill of goods that isn't worth its price tag.

Once again MacPhail tries to give us hope though:

MacPhail puts it this way: "Despite whatever inequities might exist our job is to make our team better. And we certainly had a lot of room to make our team better. We're going to make it as good as we can. That's all we can do."

He can only make it as good as Peter Angelos lets him, and right now it seems Peter is more interested in proving a point, than providing a consistent winner.

It must be pretty boring on Eutaw Street

2010-01-21T18:32:00.001-08:00

No, I'm not referencing the Orioles slow-as-molasses offseason developments, rather a new blog on the block about hangouters on certain street that borders the Warehouse.

I guess the slow offseason hasn't generated enough news to cover, so these guys have taken it upon themselves to critique yours truly.

I'm not sure whether to be flattered or not as these guys have devoted not one but several posts about me and analyzed two of my posts on this blog. I never knew that I could be a major conversation piece like that, but when you are about the only one putting up a rebuttal to the Kool-Aid that is being spread around, I guess you are bound to draw some attention, or stalkers...

But thanks for the notice and free publicity guys, and I'm sure I'll be posting more material on here for you to go through. And I have made a few corrections via the spelling, but you won't find any foul language on here, although I guess that makes you seem more professional these days.

But then again some people think anything deemed negative about the Orioles is foul language, so I guess I'll just have to be unprofessional if the situation warrants it.

Now I'm not trying to start "Blog Wars" here as this will be my only post on the matter no matter how boring it gets on "Eutaw Street."

If it was only 2005 again...

2010-01-20T20:06:00.000-08:00

Because then I'd be excited about bringing Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada back into the fold.

But right now, lots of Orioles fans want to see this happen.

However, I think the nostalgia is getting to people as these are clearly not the same two players as when they left the Orioles the first time.

Sure we'd all like to see Bedard's nasty curve, but what happens if he can't get it over the plate, or maybe he can throw his curve but his fastball is an 88 MPH souvenir waiting to happen.

Just because Bedard can pitch doesn't mean he will be able to pitch effectively in the majors again.

Remember he had labrum surgery, that's L-A-B-R-U-M surgery. He'll be lucky if he could pitch in the minors effectively again let alone the majors, and that's where I'd start him out. I'd give him a split contract with an invite to ST. Otherwise you risk wasting money and resources for a player that may never see Baltimore. And I doubt Erik would sign that, and would probably try to wait until around the AS break when he could be added to a team that needed pitching help down the stretch.

As for Tejada, he's even older than he was expected to be when we signed him the first time, and although he still hits well for a SS, his defense is no longer adequate at the position. And while a move to 3B makes perfect sense and the Orioles have a hole there, the whole point of acquiring a 3B stopgap is to get somebody better than Bell would be if he were to play the position on Opening Day. You don't get that guarantee with Tejada, and his bat might not be able to make up for that defensive learning curve as it isn't as potent as it once was.

Not to mention, Miguel is a proud man, and thus I doubt he'd just step aside to let Bell take his playing time if Bell was ready.

I realize this is a slow offseason, and that fans want to see some action, but Tejada and Bedard do nothing other than placate a nostalgic fan base. And I know some think it would be extra sweet to sign back the players we traded to kind of stick it to Seattle and Houston, but believe me nobody will care, especially those two teams.

And the only ones stuck will be the Orioles, with two potentially unproductive, past their prime players.

There's a hole at 1B, dear Andy, dear Andy...

2010-01-14T09:08:00.000-08:00

Just thought I'd remind him.

Oh but we have Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes and Ty Wigginton to fill the spot.

And Brandon Snyder is in the minors.

So we do have depth, but that depth isn't going to fill the hole. Not when your competition has players like Youkilis and Teixeira at the same spot.

1B has been a consistent problem ever since Rafael Palmeiro left the first time. Since Palmeiro's departure the Orioles have used

Will Clark
Jeff Conine
Chris Richard
Raffy (again)
Kevin Millar
Aubrey Huff

And since Palmeiro left after 1998, the Orioles have not had an .900+ OPS from the position and haven't had an OPS above .815 since 2001.

1B has been a huge void that just has been patched and patched and patched without any thought to the LT.

We've passed on several options, Lee, Konerko, Delgado and Teixeira and yet now we seem to think Snyder might be good enough to fill the spot despite only flashing the skills needed once in a two month stint at Bowie. And most scouts think he won't be more than an average position player at best.

Average isn't going to cut it at 1B in the AL East. It didn't for the other Orioles playoff teams that featured names such as Boog Powell, Eddie Murray and Rafael Palmeiro.

There's a hole at 1B.

So fix it dear Andy. Fix it right now.

Orioles don't want a Holliday

2010-01-05T21:08:00.001-08:00

In case you missed it Matt Holliday agreed to terms with the Cardinals on a 7/120 deal.

Now while the majority of Orioles fans are praising this non-move, I see it as another missed opportunity.

Andy has yet to prove he'll go "all in" to land a premium bat to add to this talented core group of players.

Holliday signed for pretty much his fair market value. If there was more competition for his services, he'd be going for at least 7/140.

I think the Orioles should have tried to at least offer 6/114 with a vesting option for a total value of 7/133.

But did they? Nope. Not MacPhail.

There's plenty of mediocre players on the market to sign at bargain bin prices so he'll just continue to wait until all the good talent is gone. And then maybe he can find a 35+ year old player or two he can sign that might be able to find the fountain of youth and buck the trend of aging and have one huge year. And they'd be so desperate to hang on to their glory years, they'd pay Andy to let them have a roster spot.

After all there's a big award to the GM that is the most fiscally conservative, right?

Vlad Guerrero come on down! Miguel Tejada, step right up!

Come to think of it, let's get Raffy and Javy back out of retirement and Sidney from some bar in Aruba, and let's do this thing right like we should of and party like it's 2004.

Hey Vlad's a name that will put people in the seats and everybody loves Miggy right?

Whoops, I think I spoiled Andy's plan.

I'll be looking over my shoulder from now on to see if there are black helicopters following me...

A message to the Orioles fanbase...

2010-01-04T22:35:00.001-08:00

The majority of you aren't helping matters...

Look I realize Andy's plan is a great feel good story, the underdog Orioles grow their own players using the Oriole Way and they all band together to take down the two AL East juggernauts of Boston and New York.

But like some stories, it's pure fiction. And I'll tell you why:

1. MLB ballplayers want to win

You know that core of Reimold, Jones, Wieters. Well they aren't locked up yet, and if the Orioles keep losing, they won't want to be. Jones and Wieters are especially critical because they are highly competitive and I could see either guy in another uniform on a winning team. We can't keep the core together if we don't win.

2. You can't have sustained success in the AL East without established premium talent.

Just look at Tampa. Sure they were the Cinderella team of 2008, but they've lost Kazmir and are going to lose Pena and Crawford after next season. Their window is shut because they can't afford to keep their homegrown talent because they want to get paid. And they can win and get paid on teams like Boston and New York. Nor can they add any premium bats to replace or augment that talent so they have a chance against Boston and New York and therefore win to convince their talent to stay.

The Orioles on the other hand have the payroll room to add talent, and therefore win more games, and show the players that they want to keep that they are serious about winning.
And then they have the room to keep most of those critical players.

So I wish you would stop saying "I'm glad we didn't sign so and so" because all you are doing is giving Andy an excuse to keep this fantasy going. He needs to add some established talent to this ballclub because that's the only way we are going to win in the AL East and the only way our homegrown talent will actually want to stay.

He's said he's going to add some bats this offseason, and you can't let him get away with just Garret Atkins or Carlos Delgado. Not when a bat like Matt Holliday is available.

So I ask you, please hold MacPhail more accountable than you are. Apathy and satisfaction only keep the fantasy going and missing the playoffs a reality.

You are much more intelligent and passionate to believe a dream that just isn't going to come true...

The Long and Short Term of It

2010-01-03T18:38:00.001-08:00

Look at the following Orioles offseason moves to date from MLB TradeRumors:

Acquired/Re-signed: Chad Moeller, Michel Hernandez, Armando Gabino, Craig Tatum,
Kevin Millwood, Mike Gonzalez, Garrett Atkins, Chris Lamb, Frank Mata, Alfredo
Simon, Mike Hinckley, Ross Wolf, Chris George, Scott Moore, Josh Perrault

See any long-term moves there? I don't.

MacPhail hasn't addressed any position for the long term, instead choosing to go with stopgaps.

We've now signed multiple stopgaps over the past two offseasons under Andy MacPhail

Cesar Izturis, Ty Wigginton and now Garrett Atkins and will likely add one more.

Izturis is fine because you don't need a ton of offense at SS, and his glove has been advertised.

Wigginton has been an extreme disappointment, and although MacPhail was probably counting on him to be Mora's replacement, he probably isn't worth a bench spot, though considering the money owed to him, he'll get one.

As for Atkins, barring a major signing, the Orioles have probably found that RH cleanup hitter they were looking for, and once again are trying to find that Oriole Magic in Atkins' bat. Andy must be dancing in the Warehouse because he was able to get one so cheap.

As for the pitching. Millwood was a good trade for the Yankee BP machine that is Chris Ray and it's hard to argue with the Gonzalez signing but it's interesting to see the Rays get a cheaper and more electric arm in Soriano for less of a commitment and slightly more dollars per year. The Orioles were interested in Soriano, but then backed off. But it looks like a non-valuable pitching prospect could have landed him. In fact it seems AM actually overpaid for his closer slightly when you look at the rest of the market.

In any case neither Millwood or Gonzalez are LT signings. MacPhail chose not to pursue John Lackey who he probably could have landed for 5/90, and would have provided an instant ace at the top of the rotation. Now Millwood was the Rangers' ace, but you might not get much better than a 2.0 WAR performance from him and he's gone after 2010.

In all acquisitions, MacPhail seems to trying to buy time in hopes that all the internal options for the Orioles will bear fruit. But history shows there will be failures. And instead of relying on some of this internal talent, the O's would be a lot better off IMO if they were to consider anything that talent gave them as a bonus.

That way even if the Orioles internal options all develop as MacPhail hopes, the Orioles would have depth and options to pursue other trades.

It just makes sense to start looking for pieces to add to a competitive team for the long term.

Unfortunately for Orioles fans, Andy MacPhail just wants to "stay the course."

But why stay the course when all you are doing is treading water?

Back in Black and Orange

2010-01-03T17:38:00.000-08:00

Well folks, I decided to revive this blog and one of the main purposes is that there aren't enough blogs out there that are holding Andy MacPhail accountable for his actions or lack there of in rebuilding the Baltimore Orioles.

So don't expect any orange colored glasses here. I'm not going to tell you Brandon Snyder is going to be a power hitter at the ML level and will be our 1B man for the next decade. And don't expect to hear that Chris Tillman is going to suddenly figure out how to get ML hitters out at the same rate he did in the minors without throwing a high fastball.

No, here you will get the other side, the side that sees MacPhail signing Garrett Atkins as our big RH cleanup bat because he could get him on the cheap. And the fact MacPhail has never signed a big FA bat to put his club into contention and likely never will. Or the fact that he is so obssessed with pitching that he has neglected to stock our minor league system with impact bats and yet refuses to trade all of that pitching he's stockpiled.

Somebody's got to hold MacPhail accountable for this and demand that he do better.

If it's just me at least somebody is doing it.

Our players and you fellow fans deserve more than what we are getting.

The Dog Days of MacPhail

2008-07-06T10:56:00.000-07:00

Hi all, thought I'd revive this blog with this post. I've done a little research courtsey of Baseball-Reference.com and have come up with all the trades that were made while Andy MacPhail was the GM of the Twins, Cubs and Orioles. I've also listed the record, place and how many games back they were in the division and WC race (post 1993). So here you go:

MacPhail’s July and August Deals

1985 (1)
August 1, 1985 (46-53, 6th place, 10 G back)
Traded a player to be named later, Curt Wardle, Jay Bell, and Jim Weaver to the Cleveland Indians. Received Bert Blyleven. The Minnesota Twins sent Rich Yett (September 17, 1985) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

1986 (1)
August 13, 1986 (50-64, 6th place, 12 G back)
Traded Ron Davis and Dewayne Coleman (minors) to the Chicago Cubs. Received George Frazier, Ray Fontenot, and Julius McDougal (minors).

1987 (1)
July 31, 1987 (56-48, 1st place, 0 G back)
Traded a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians. Received Steve Carlton. The Minnesota Twins sent Jeff Perry (minors) (August 18, 1987) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

1988 (2)
August 16, 1988 (67-51, 2nd place, 8 G back)
Traded Karl Best to the San Francisco Giants. Received Alan Cockrell.

August 29, 1988 (73-57, 2nd place, 8 G back)
Traded a player to be named later to the Baltimore Orioles. Received Jim Dwyer. The Minnesota Twins sent Doug Kline (minors) (August 31, 1988) to the Baltimore Orioles to complete the trade.

1989 (3)
July 31, 1989 (51-53, 5th place, 12 G back)
Traded Frank Viola to the New York Mets. Received a player to be named later, Rick Aguilera, David West, Kevin Tapani, and Tim Drummond. The New York Mets sent Jack Savage (October 16, 1989) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

August 1, 1989 (52-53, 5th place, 11.5 G back)
Sold Manny Hernandez to the New York Mets.

August 28, 1989 (66-64, 5th place, 13 G back)
Traded Jim Dwyer to the Montreal Expos. Received a player to be named later. The Montreal Expos sent Alonzo Powell (September 16, 1989) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

1990 (1)
July 27, 1990 (47-52, 6th place, 15 G back)
Traded John Candelaria to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Nelson Liriano and Pedro Munoz.

1991 (0)
No trades

1992 (1)
August 31, 1992 (73-59, 2nd place, 6.5 G back)
Traded Bill Krueger to the Montreal Expos. Received Darren Reed.

1993 (3)
August 10, 1993 (47-62, 6th place, 13.5 G back)
Traded Steve Ontiveros to the Seattle Mariners. Received Greg Shockey (minors).

August 15, 1993 (52-63, 6th place, 11 G back)
Traded Mike Pagliarulo to the Baltimore Orioles. Received a player to be named later. The Baltimore Orioles sent Erik Schullstrom (August 16, 1993) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

August 28, 1993 (55-73, 6th place, 16 G back)
Traded Jim Deshaies to the San Francisco Giants. Received a player to be named later, Aaron Fultz, and Andres Duncan (minors). The San Francisco Giants sent Greg Brummett (September 1, 1993) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

2000 (6)
July 21, 2000 (43-54, 3rd place, D 13.5 G back, WC 17 G back)
Traded Glenallen Hill to the New York Yankees. Received Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena.

July 26, 2000 (45-54, 3rd place, D 11.5 G back, WC 16 G back)
Traded Ismael Valdez to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Jamie Arnold, Jorge Piedra, and cash.

July 28, 2000 (46-55, 3rd place, D 10.5 G back, WC 16 G back)
Traded Chris Hatcher, Mike Heathcott, and Brett King (minors) to the Anaheim Angels. Received Brett Hinchliffe and Keith Luuloa.

July 31, 2000 (49-55, 3rd place, D 8.5 G back, WC 15.5 G back)
Traded Scott Downs to the Montreal Expos. Received Rondell White.

Traded Henry Rodriguez to the Florida Marlins. Received Ross Gload and Dave Noyce (minors).

August 23, 2000 (55-70, 3rd place, D 14.5 G back, WC 21.5 G back)
Sent Alan Zinter to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of a conditional deal.

2001 (3)
July 20, 2001 (55-40, 1st place, D 0 G back, WC 0 G back)
Traded Chris Booker and Ben Shaffar (minors) to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Michael Tucker.

July 27, 2001 (60-42, 1st place, D 0 G back, WC 0 G back)
Traded a player to be named later and Manuel Aybar to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Received Fred McGriff. The Chicago Cubs sent Jason Smith (August 6, 2001) to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to complete the trade.

July 30, 2001 (61-43, 1st place, D 0 G back, WC 0 G back)
Traded Ruben Quevedo and Pete Zoccolillo to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Dave Weathers and Roberto Miniel (minors).

2007 (2)
August 9, 2007 (48-68, 4th place, D 21.5 G back, WC 35.5 G back)
Traded John Parrish to the Seattle Mariners. Received Sebastien Boucher (minors).

August 31, 2007 (55-79, 4th place, D 23.5 G back, WC 40.5 G back)
Traded Steve Trachsel to the Chicago Cubs. Received Rocky Cherry, Scott Moore and Jake Renshaw.

So what can we learn from this history. Well first lets tally up the trades for each month:

July: 11 , August 13

That looks pretty even but now let's take a closer look. In 2000 and 2001 that accounts for 8 of the July deals that MacPhail has made. 2000 seemed like a firesale similar to that of the Orioles where MacPhail did not get premium talent back for the talent he shipped away. In 2001 the Cubs were buyers as they added Michael Tucker, Fred McGriff and David Weathers. In most of the trades that were done in August the teams that MacPhail was running were all out of the race by a substantial margin and with the exception of the Viola trade in 1989 and the firesale of 2000, MacPhail seems to like August the most as the month to wheel and deal.

I'd expect no different in 2008. My prediction: 1 July trade and 2-3 August trades.

Steve, it's time to hit the Trax...

2008-05-04T22:56:00.000-07:00

There are a few things I'd like to change about this team right now, one of is to remove Steve Trachsel from the rotation and the team all together. He got by with smoke and mirrors early in the season and it looked like he might be able to pull a repeat of 2007, but the smoke has cleared and the mirrors are broken and the objects you see are baseballs leaving the yard. Yesterday's start for the Angels pretty much confirmed it.

Trachsel is done and he'd only make our bullpen worse. He's not getting paid much I believe so money shouldn't be a factor in his release. It's time to wish him well and let him get on with a coaching career. He'll make a good pitching or bullpen coach for some team down the road.

The next move I would make is benching Kevin Millar. Thankfully after a month of pleading from fans Trembley removed Millar from the cleanup spot. Now the next step he needs to take is benching Millar completely. It's what is best for the team. It's not like he'd take a hit in the trade value dept, because he's expensive for his limited production at 3.8 million (thanks Dave for last Sept) and he'd be at best a bench player on a contending team.

Millar is no longer doing what makes him famous. You don't hear him cracking jokes, but you also aren't seeing him taking pitches. He's become more impatient and at 36 when you are impatient and you don't have the bat speed to catch up to foul pitches off, the results are what you see now:

.214 AVG, .285 OBP, .342 SLG, .626 OPS

That isn't pretty and it's certainly not the stats of a ML cleanup hitter which is where Trembley had him for the entire month of April. Seriously, what took the guy so long? But I saw Millar creep back up in the lineup to #5 after being dropped to #7 on Friday. So you know Trembley is anxious to put him at cleanup again. The first multi hit game he has, I bet he's right back in there protecting Markakis. Anybody want to bet against me?

So the solution is simple. Since the O's seem to think Scott Moore is better served rotting away in the hitter's hell known as Harbor Park, there is a guy out there who the Texas Rangers of all teams have seemed to abandon. His name is Jason Botts and he sports a career OPS of .883 in the minors with a .484 SLG and a .399 OBP. However he doesn't have a position really besides DH. Right now the Rangers have that spot occupied and Botts has struggled somewhat in his time in the majors this season.

The Orioles are rebuilding though, right? If there's any guy to take a chance on - why not Botts? The guy is only 27. He could be the next Carlos Pena or the next Calvin Pickering, but we can afford to give this guy a shot to see if he could be a future DH for us.

So here are the moves:

Release Trax, trade one of our pitchers such as Jim Hoey or Bob McCrory and acquire Botts to DH. Bench Millar and put Huff at 1B. Millar is used as a PHer or defensive replacement similar to Payton. It will give him a chance to take a role he'll take if he's traded anyway as not one ML team would have him as a starter right now. And even as a rebuilding team he should not be starting when there are guys like Botts out there that are worth taking a chance on.
****

I don't know if the jet lag is still affecting the O's but they really need to wake up out there. In the past two games, they've basically taken themselves out of the game. In key situations on Saturday's game, apparently somebody put some pine tar in the gloves of the Orioles, because, not once or twice but three times, the Angels scored runs because an Oriole couldn't get the ball out of their glove. First Markakis could have nailed Wood at the plate, then Hernandez could throw out fellow catcher Napoli on a double steal attempt. And finally when Roberts could have gunned down the winning run, he threw it wide of Ramon Hernandez because he couldn't get the ball out of his glove in time.

And then there's all the baserunning errors - way too many Orioles have been picked off or turned hits into outs when they've overran bases or not made it to a base in time.

Trembley is known for making guys accountable, so let's hope he does something to refocus these guys. The schedule is brutal, but that's not an excuse for these mental errors.

On the road again...

2008-04-22T00:10:00.001-07:00

The Orioles are back on the Left Coast tonight in Seattle in which Adam Jones and George Sherrill will make their return to the Emerald City and Safeco Field.

It's been a pretty solid season so far from Sherrill. He's given up a few runs in his last appearances but Sunday's appearance was just to get some work in so it was expected he'd be a little rusty and Derek Jeter is an Oriole killer. Jones is also having the up and down season like we all expected. He's shown that he still needs some seasoning with his 0-4 with 4 Ks showing on the 13th, and he's also shown those flashes of brilliance and what is to come with a 3-3 game on he 14th and then belting his first Orioles HR on the 15th. With Bedard on the DL and rumors swirling about the seriousness of the injury, this trade is a win without even factoring the players such as Chris Tillman that are in the minors. Adam Jones alone is worth the price of admission with his exciting play. It's fun watching him and Markakis growing (albeit Markakis more advanced at the plate) into future stars.

****
LUUUUUUUUUKE!

Seriously, has there been an Oriole that was loved more by the fans more than Luke Scott in the past few seasons? I don't remember anybody getting the reaction that he gets for each AB. This guy is a gamer and not since the days of BJ Surhoff, did the Orioles have a complete player like Scott roaming LF. Whether its the notes he keeps for each AB, or the fact that he works the pitcher almost everytime at the plate, there is tons to love about this guy. Thanks for Scott, Houston. The force is strong with this one...

****
Brandon Fahey and Luis Hernandez are still on the team somehow. Fahey has proven to be the more consistent of the two with Hernandez being more flashy yet wild in his throws. Neither however resembles a major league shortstop. Alex Cintron is basically playing his way back into baseball shape on the Norfolk Tides roster but I wouldn't be surprised to see Fahey sent down and Cintron called back up at the end of the month to take the SS job. Freddie Bynum could also return mid May to try to take a crack at the job if Cintron can't handle it. Scott Moore is also playing some SS in Norfolk to see if he might be a solution. The Orioles could really use his bat instead of our light hitting SS's.

These guys (minus Moore) are all bargain basement SS's though and the Orioles really do need to find a more permanent solution. Hopefully MacPhail has been working the phones to make something happen...

****
It's been a great start for the Orioles, although this is their third straight year of starting 11-7 only to lose the next game, nobody expected them to be this good. With a brutal schedule ahead though, I think we are about to find just how good they really are. I expect to see this team in 5th place by the end of May. It's not going to be boring however, as these guys battle their tails off to the last man. That should be credited to Trembley who has got this group to overachieve and believe in themselves.

We'll see if they can hold on and keep the Oriole Magic alive starting tonight in Seattle...

Some random thoughts

2008-04-02T22:41:00.000-07:00

Well just doing a little Google searching I noticed this little old blog referenced on Baltimore's WNST site. Looks like I've been noticed a little bit so I guess I'll have to keep this a little more up to date. I do most of my posting at OriolesHangout.com as you might know under the screenname I post here, but I'll try to share a few more things here seeing as I am starting to get a little bit of an audience.

******

It seems MacPhail and Trembley decided the Hernandez experiment wasn't a complete failure after all as he started at SS on Opening Day, however the Cintron signing shows that MacPhail is keeping Hernandez and Fahey on a short leash. Cintron didn't make my list of available SS's because at the time I posted that he was still with the Cubs and there is question regarding his arm strength, however he should be an upgrade over Brandon Fahey anyway with the bat as a utility player if the Orioles want to go that route.

I'd still like to see the Orioles get a more permanent option and my #1 target next offseason after Mark Teixeira would be Khalil Greene from the Padres. PETCO has killed his offensive numbers and it's been said he wants to move back east to be closer to his home in South Carolina. Greene grew up in PA, so he'd be a perfect fit in a ballpark that wouldn't hurt his #'s at home and he'd be a solid #5 hitter after Markakis and Tex. I would look to trade one of our young SPs and Nolan Reimold, as SD has no OF prospects to speak of.

******

The early results on the bullpen look quite promising as Albers, Burres, Bierd, Walker and Bradford have all held the fort after the starters have exited, and tonight George Sherrill got his first save as an Oriole reminding some of the days of Randall K. Myers and most recently B. J. Ryan. This guy is a keeper and will be a key for playoff runs in 2010 and 2011 if we do keep him as we should. Randor Bierd has also proved to be exciting especially with that changeup that was taught to him by none other than Pedro Martinez. He should be really fun to watch and should develop into a fixture in the pen, provided Trembley doesn't burn him out. But Trembley's bullpen management has seemed solid these past two games. Using Albers for three innings and Burres for one on his throw day, was a great bullpen saver. This allowed Walker and Bradford to go tonight and I will assume that Sarfate will get the call tomorrow.

While the bullpen looks good, the starting pitching has some issues. Guthrie just didn't have any movement on his pitches, Cabrera had problems with location as usual and now we've got Steve Trachsel ready to pitch batting practice tomorrow. Not exactly your dream rotation. However with the exception of Adam Loewen, these guys are just in the rotation to eat innings. The next good group of Oriole starters is in the minors with Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Chorye Spoone leading a talented bunch of pitchers. The Orioles probably have as talented a group of young SPs as any other club in baseball. And they aren't too far away. So when Trachsel gets lit up tomorrow, just think that Chris Tillman will be mowing down those same hitters possibly as soon as next season. That Bedard trade looks better and better...

And speaking of that trade, the key acquisition, Adam Jones had a great night tonight collecting his first hit, RBI and SB as an Oriole. Congratulations Jonesy, may they be the first of many more this season and in the years to come.

Help Wanted: Baltimore Orioles SS

2008-03-24T22:32:00.000-07:00

Now that the Luis Hernandez experiment seems to be a failure, the team is now stuck with Brandon Fahey at SS, yes Brandon Fahey. The guy looks more like he belongs on the bench, as the team's batboy, vs. playing full time for a major league team.

MacPhail and Trembley are both prepared to go into battle with Fahey, however but who's kidding who here. So let's go over some guys that we might be able to obtain in trade

1. Jack Wilson, Pirates - Wilson probably would be #1 on my wish list. Pittsburgh would love to get rid of his contract and the guy has a decent bat with some pop and plays solid defense. He'd be a perfect stopgap option for the next couple of years..

2. Ronny Cedeno, Cubs - Cedeno has been mentioned in just about every Roberts trade rumor so he's definitely available. He's got a good upside with the bat and is a good defensive SS and is even better at 2B. There is thought that the Cubs might release him, but I doubt it. They will try to trade him first.

3. Joaquin Arias, Rangers - Arias is a guy that is now blocked by Michael Young, and has been moved below phenom Elvis Andrus on the depth chart. He's coming off of shoulder surgery and the only option for him is utility player right now in the majors. However the guy is a good defensive SS and has some promise with the bat unlike Hernandez. He's only 23 so he's got a decent shot of improving his skills at the plate.

4. Chris Nelson, Rockies - Had Peter Angelos not interfered, this guy might actually be in orange and black already. He's blocked at 2B and SS by Nix and Tulo respectively and he's improved at the plate and is good defensively. He may have to spend some time at AAA but could be a mid season callup.

So there you have it, four realistic options that are out there that we could obtain. Hopefully MacPhail has already put out the ad in the Classified section...

There's A New Sherrill in Town...

2008-02-12T20:33:00.000-08:00

It's been awhile since my last post so I figured I'd weigh in on my take of the Bedard trade and MacPhail's comments in the press conference afterward.

It wasn't the 31st when it was made, but a deal was struck after all and that's ultimately the most important.

First the deal itself, LHSP Erik Bedard for CF Adam Jones, LHRP George Sherrill, RHSP Chris Tillman, LHSP Tony Butler, and RHRP Kam Mickolio.

This is a great trade for the Orioles, it's not a spectacular knock-it-out-of-the-park HR trade, because we weren't able to get one more stud position prospect, but it's a great trade.

Jones has been compared to Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron and Vernon Wells. I think he has a chance to be better than all three of those guys. He is the definition of a stud prospect and should take over as one of the leaders of this franchise for years to come. I see him taking over Roberts role in the community as the face of the franchise for Baltimore's citizens.

George Sherrill, was a lights out LH setup guy for Seattle, and although he was dissappointed leaving the Emerald City, he should get a crack at the vacant closer role and should remind some of BJ Ryan. There are a lot of people that want to flip this guy, but I'm not one of them. Sherrill is under team control for 4 more years and the Orioles do not have a young LHP that is coming up through the ranks that could take Sherrill's place, so Sherrill is a must have for when we do compete starting in 2010 when he'll only be 32. Jamie Walker is 36 and had a large number of appearances last year, so the chances of him declining are pretty significant. So if the Orioles are going to deal a LH pitcher for say a middle infielder, Walker should be the one they trade.

Now the younger pitchers in this deal - Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio. Tillman was the Mariners' Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2007. He more than held his own in a hitters park and is very comparable to Brandon Erbe, only scouts like him better. Butler was hurt earlier in the year but came back to pitch quite well. He has some control problems and some mechanics issues, but could be a steal if he gets them corrected. Mickolio is a 6 foot 9 inch RHP that is a work in progress, but it is thought he could challenge for a late inning bullpen role starting as soon as this season.

So looking at that haul, it easily tops the Haren and Santana returns, and gives you confidence in Andy MacPhail and the future of the Orioles. However, it is clear now from MacPhail's comments, that Angelos is still involved in the baseball decisions, but it seems MacPhail has a great working relationship with Angelos, unlike past GMs and has been able to do everything he wants. For Oriole fans we hope it stays this way because as long as it does MacPhail looks like he'll be able to steer us well clear of the iceberg and into safe harbor...

Thursday, January 31st

2008-01-29T20:47:00.000-08:00

This is the self imposed deadline for Andy MacPhail to trade Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts or to keep them.

This will also be the day everything goes down IMO with one big press conference on Friday.

MacPhail has shown a history of making good deals at the last possible second for the Orioles. First there was the Wieters negotiations, which looked bleak all the way until one minute before the midnight deadline to sign him, but he signed and MacPhail was able to keep him off the 40 man roster, a huge plus.

The second deadline deal was the Trachsel deal, when all throughout the month of August Orioles fans constantly berated MacPhail for not trading Trax (I admit I was one of them). Instead he hung on to him listening to offers until the last day for players traded to be eligible for the postseason. That's when he was able to get Hendry to overpay by giving us not two but eventually three useful pieces for the organization, for one guy who is still looking for a job.

The Tejada deal was much quicker, but that's because he was dealing with Ed Wade, one of the worst GM's in baseball. We netted a large bounty of players, including one who should match Tejada's #'s this season, so this deal was another success.

But now as we wait for the Bedard trade, we as Oriole fans shouldn't expect anything less from MacPhail then to wait Bavasi and the Mariners out until the last possible instant in order to try to get the best deal for Bedard. The Roberts deal to the Cubs is pretty much agreed upon from all reports and it's just waiting for the Bedard domino to fall.

It's been a long excruciating wait that's for sure, but the wait seems almost over. Hopefully at the last minute, MacPhail can continue his success.

Friday is the first day of February, and hopefully the first look at our new 2008 Baltimore Orioles.

Peter Angelos strikes again?

2008-01-28T21:51:00.000-08:00

That's what Ken Rosenthal and others are saying on this one.

I don't buy it.

First of all Andy MacPhail would have already tendered his resignation. Considering what that would do to the franchise at this moment, I don't see Angelos vetoing anything MacPhail has put so much time and effort into.

There are reports that Angelos was in the hospital today and he didn't look well. I'm guessing that might have something to do with his no-show at the Warehouse today. Meanwhile Adam Jones is still in Venezuela, not back in the States. He's not in Baltimore but he's not back home either. So the deal is still alive IMO.

I think Angelos wants to look over the deal and that's the holdup. This is a huge deal because we are trading our best pitcher since Mussina. Granted I'm not too happy about that but it's his club and MacPhail did present the Tejada trade to him, so it wouldn't be a stretch for him to want to see this deal as well.

The media coverage of this has been tremendous so for it to die via an Angelos veto - the Orioles would have all that new found shine and some respect just taken right away.

I think Jones will be an Oriole by the end of this week and Bedard will be a Mariner. There's just too much at stake for both teams for them to simply walk away...

Oriole Fans Held Hostage - Day 45

2008-01-26T19:14:00.000-08:00

That's right, it's now been 45 days since MacPhail has made a meaningful trade or signing.

Supposedly the Bedard deal is really, really, really, really close, and will happen really, really, really, really, soon. But that's what we've been hearing for a month + now.

Soon. Ugh! I think soon should be one of those words that is banned from the English language, but that's just me being frustrated I guess.

Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider states the deal needs to go down this weekend or its probably not happening at all. So tomorrow most likely we will be freed from this hostage crisis one way or another and can get on with our lives outside of the Orioles.

I probably like the rest of you am sick of logging on and trying to follow every rumor, but I can't help it as I am addicted to this offseason. There was so much promise and hope, to have it go out on a whimper would just be so disappointing.

But then that's just the status quo with this team.

The Tortoise and the Hare

2008-01-23T16:07:00.000-08:00

This offseason is a tale of two GM's - Andy MacPhail of the Baltimore Orioles and Billy Beane of the Oakland A's.

And for Oriole fans, we will have to hope this is a case of the classic tale, "The Tortoise and the Hare."

Billy Beane is obviously the Hare, as he's already traded away Dan Haren and Nick Swisher and has received 3-4 blue chip prospects in return.

Andy MacPhail was able to deal Tejada for 5 players, but no real blue chip prospects, but it was a solid trade nevertheless. However since that trade on Dec 12, MacPhail has made no other signficant trades. Now you can see that MacPhail is clearly the Tortoise in this rebuilding race...

Take into account the two quotes from both GM's. This was Beane in a AP release after he made the Haren trade:

"Our status quo as we stood going into the season was mediocrity at best," Beane
said. "That's my opinion. If anything we're taking a step back with the idea
we have a chance to build something very good for a long time. ... The cost of
indecision for us probably would be a bigger mistake."

Now this is MacPhail in today's Baltimore Sun article:

"I'm not really being pressured by anybody," said MacPhail. "It may not be
convenient for everybody's timetable, but as a franchise, we have to live with
the consequences. You have a responsibility to the franchise and the
fans to make sure that you do everything that you can do to try to put the odds in your favor. ... When you make the deal, it has to stand the scrutiny that I've always talked about -- you're convinced you're better off afterward than you were before you made [it]. I'm keeping all my options open."

Two different, viewpoints, as Beane would rather make a deal when it was available than sit back and decide and deliberate on it while MacPhail needs to have the deal be a guaranteed success, for him to pull the trigger. The question is how much of a success does it have to be? At what point do you assume a little risk to make a deal that will better your franchise overall?

We shall see who will win this race, but if MacPhail goes into 2008 without making any more significant trades, the only losers will be the Oriole fans, as MacPhail plods along...

Playing GM

2008-01-21T13:42:00.000-08:00

If I were Orioles GM this would be what I would do this offseason, taking into account the other deals that were made.

Roberts to the Cubs for Cedeno, Murton and Gallagher

Bedard, Payton and Millar to the Mariners for Jones, Tillman, Tuiasosopo/Chen, Sherrill and Sexson

Mora and $ to the Phillies for J.A. Happ

Walker and $ to the Braves for Brent Lillibridge

Lineup

SS Lillibridge
CF Jones
RF Markakis
1B Sexson
LF Scott
DH Murton
3B Huff
C Hernandez
2B Cedeno

Bench:
Bynum
Quiroz
Redman
Moore/Chen/Tui

Rotation

Guthrie
Loewen
Cabrera
Patton
Gallagher/Olson/Penn/Albers

Bullpen:

Sherrill
Happ
Bradford
Sarfate
Bierd
Hoey
Burres

Bradford and Huff and possibly Sherrill traded at the deadline.

What do you think?

If this is rebuilding...

2008-01-21T12:18:00.001-08:00

The Orioles should hire a new contractor.

Seriously, this offseason has been the most disappointing not frustrating, since the days of Syd Thrift. We've got two big trading chips out on the market that we just can't seem to move and nobody really seems to know why.

Andy MacPhail has got the Warehouse in lockdown so nothing gets out so the "Insider Era" on OriolesHangout.com has come to an end and also as well any reasoning behind why this offseason has moved slower than a snail's pace.

But here's what we do know:

After MacPhail was hired he made two positive impressions albeit not without serious drama. He signed Matt Wieters, who is going to be the next savior for the Orioles at literally the last minute. And then he held onto the human pitching machine known as Steve Trachsel past the July 31st trading deadline and somehow got the Cubs to give up not one but three players for him that could contribute to the majors in some way, unlike Trachsel who is still currently unemployed...

Going into the offseason, there was all sorts of speculation with MacPhail having organizational meetings and coming out with a plan for the offseason and beyond. It looked like we finally have a competant GM running things and the future was bright.

It was a long wait until after the World Series for the GM Meetings to start, and there was much anticipation as it appeared MacPhail would begin our offseason right there, possibly dealing Tejada and Bedard. Unfortunately it was all talk and little action, a theme that would describe our offseason to come to this point. Yet MacPhail came out of the Meetings saying we "batted a thousand."

So thus our hopes were renewed for the next milestone - the Winter Meetings when all sorts of trades were supposed to go down. And day after day, night after night we waited for news of a trade that would never come. However we did sign a backup catcher that was probably 200 times better than Paul Bako and picked up a reliever in the Rule V. So at least we did something, but it was still disappointing considering all the hype leading up to the Meetings and the fact that Florida, surprise surprise, pulled off a blockbuster trade with the Tigers for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, recieving Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller and a bunch of other prospects - the trade the Orioles were supposed to have made. But Haren and Santana were still on the market so there was still hope.

The Dodgers seemed the most likely destination for Bedard and the possiblity of adding Tejada to the deal would make it a blockbuster with rumored names of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw and Adam LaRoche tossed in there. This was going to be the deal and according to certain people was pretty close to happening, until the Dodgers wanted us to pay a ton of Tejada's salary and then it fell apart. So the Dodgers moved onto Plan B with the signing of Kuroda.

There were lots of rumors in December after the Meetings of Tejada to the Angels as well. The Astros were in the mix as were the Giants, but neither were considered as serious. Finally somehow on Dec. 12th, MacPhail suckered Ed Wade and the Astros into trading 5 players for Tejada, OF Luke Scott, LHSP Troy Patton, RHSP Matt Albers. 3B Mike Costanzo, and RHRP Dennis Sarfate. Not a bad haul as Scott will finally fix LF but the Orioles opened up a huge hole at SS by trading Tejada without getting a ML ready SS in return so the default candidate is (gulp) Luis Hernandez. So the Orioles now had holes at CF and SS.

There was still trade talk of Bedard and Roberts now up until Christmas with the Mariners and Reds being the most aggressive for Bedard and the Cubs for Roberts. The Orioles were demanding Adam Jones from the M's and any package from Cinci had to have Jay Bruce. Billy Beane traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks, for only two blue chip prospects, in effect setting the market for Bedard. So now instead of the three to four blue chippers, we are down to two as market value. Yet according to reports MacPhail was still demanding three to four players. And just as it seemed we'd dropped our demands for Bruce from the Reds, they moved on and made a trade with Texas to fill their rotation. A Cubs trade was discussed for Roberts but never came to fruition. So it was coal in the stockings of Oriole fans as the holiday season came and went without a trade being made.

So with the Reds and Dodgers out of the picture, the Mariners seemed to have the best shot at landing Bedard as the new year began. Supposedly the hangup was RHP Brandon Morrow, the Mariners version of Daniel Cabrera, but recently we learned that it may be the reluctance of the M's trading Adam Jones that is holding up the deal. They yanked him from Winter Ball at one point most likely for a trade but then returned him back to action - getting "cold feet" it seemed. And MacPhail has set a deadline of the end of the month before we are going to stopgap FA to fill our holes - Whoopie!

And this is where we sit currently on January 21st. But then there was news recently that the Cubs and Orioles had reached a 7 for 2 swap for Roberts and Bedard only to have it killed by Angelos, something that has been vehemently denied by both clubs. I tend to believe this isn't true as why would MacPhail stick around if Angelos killed one of his trades. The Orioles need him more than he needs them. Yet the Cubs and Orioles seem to be trying to get this done as reports have surfaced the same deal is being worked on.

Personally I think this is a ploy by two friendly GMs. I wouldn't be surprised that Hendry is helping MacPhail put pressure on the Mariners to give into MacPhail's demands by "working" on a deal that would bring both to the Cubs. In exchange MacPhail would trade Roberts for a reasonable price. But we shall see.

In any event, if we hold onto Bedard, this rebuilding has the chance being signifcantly setback if he becomes hurt or performs worse than he did in 2007. And right now it seems we are set to do just that. Roberts would obviously stay if Bedard stays and he's our second biggest trading chip, so if we are truly rebuilding, as much as the female fanbase might decline, he's got to go.

And then there's all the aging dreck we have on our roster - Mora, Gibbons, Millar and Payton. These guys can't go until the big chips are gone supposedly so we are stuck with them as well.

So with holes in CF, SS and solutions being Corey Patterson and Luis Hernandez, we are prepared to go into the 2008 season with an uninspiring group of underachieving players save for Bedard (who doesn't want to be here), Roberts and Markakis.

If that is the attraction at Birdland, I know I won't buy a ticket for admission...

The Case Against Millar

2008-01-21T10:56:00.000-08:00

Kevin Millar needs to pack his bags.

And here's why:

The Orioles are rebuilding and Millar is going to be 36 this season, there are two guys behind him namely Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo who are going to need playing time. First base/DH is a log jam right now with Aubrey Huff/Millar/Moore/Gibbons and Costanzo. Gibbons will probably just be given the "Milton in Office Space treatment" but then you've still got Huff/Millar/Moore and Costanzo to sort out.

Aubrey Huff is too valuable just to cut loose right now, and it's not his stripper commentating skills I'm talking about. He has historically performed stellar after the All Star break as we've seen in Houston and then last year in Baltimore when he put up this line:

.309 AVG .389 OBP .508 SLG .897 OPS

That would be only second to Nick Markakis on the team. Now I'm not advocating we keep the guy for the length of his contract, but considering the fact he's put up great #'s in August and September, if we were to pay a little bit of contract, a contender could add him at the deadline for the stretch run when he would be at maximum offensive output and we could get something good back in terms of a prospect.

Now as for Kevin Millar, he has done the exact opposite of Huff, as after the break last year at age 35 he put up this line:

.234 AVG .338 OBP .402 SLG .740 OPS

And the Orioles are thinking of making him the cleanup hitter - with those #'s? Yikes. Markakis is going to have hit more HR's this year to drive himself in, because Millar isn't going to do it. Those Post-All Star break #'s also show that he will likely decline in value further as the season progresses. Contenders know that he'll wear down so they won't give up as much for him at the deadline as they would Huff. And there is a chance at age 36 those #'s will become much worse after the break meaning he could slip from being a Type B FA to a type with no compensation - no draft picks.

Now you also have Dave Trembley trying to reshape this club into one that has pride in their team. And of course, last October, Millar showed a complete lack of pride in his team by selling himself out to Fox in which he did a promo identifying himself as still being part of Red Sox Nation. The Nation - the same group of bandwagoning pink hat wearing fans that invade Camden Yards every year and destroy the park atmosphere. These bunch of locusts that take our beautiful park and destroy any charm it has by their rude, crude behavior, arrogance and attitudes. And then there's the players, who seem just as arrogant as the fans. They showboat on every HR, and think our pitchers "stink." Yes Kevin Millar identified himself as one of them. Now how can Trembley look at Millar as a clubhouse leader when he's wiling to sell himself and his team out for a media spot endorsing the very team and fanbase that Oriole fans hate? Leaders do not do that. People think that Trembley was just like MacPhail and ok with Millar's actions - but Trembley's "no comment" spoke volumes. There is no room for that on Trembley's Orioles.

So there you have the case against Millar, it's not only that he's 36, blocking two younger guys that need playing time and is a threat to drop off the table giving us no draft pick compensation, but he's a sell-out and is no more loyal to the Baltimore Orioles as Reggie Jackson was. And Jackson was no leader...

Welcome!

2008-01-20T22:20:00.000-08:00

WELCOME, one and all to Orioles and Lobster. As a devout Oriole fan in Maine deep in the heart of Red Sox or should I say Sux Nation, I will be expressing my thoughts here in this blog on the Orioles and other things in general, but mainly the Orioles.

So let me get started...