Thursday, January 31st

This is the self imposed deadline for Andy MacPhail to trade Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts or to keep them.

This will also be the day everything goes down IMO with one big press conference on Friday.

MacPhail has shown a history of making good deals at the last possible second for the Orioles. First there was the Wieters negotiations, which looked bleak all the way until one minute before the midnight deadline to sign him, but he signed and MacPhail was able to keep him off the 40 man roster, a huge plus.

The second deadline deal was the Trachsel deal, when all throughout the month of August Orioles fans constantly berated MacPhail for not trading Trax (I admit I was one of them). Instead he hung on to him listening to offers until the last day for players traded to be eligible for the postseason. That's when he was able to get Hendry to overpay by giving us not two but eventually three useful pieces for the organization, for one guy who is still looking for a job.

The Tejada deal was much quicker, but that's because he was dealing with Ed Wade, one of the worst GM's in baseball. We netted a large bounty of players, including one who should match Tejada's #'s this season, so this deal was another success.

But now as we wait for the Bedard trade, we as Oriole fans shouldn't expect anything less from MacPhail then to wait Bavasi and the Mariners out until the last possible instant in order to try to get the best deal for Bedard. The Roberts deal to the Cubs is pretty much agreed upon from all reports and it's just waiting for the Bedard domino to fall.

It's been a long excruciating wait that's for sure, but the wait seems almost over. Hopefully at the last minute, MacPhail can continue his success.

Friday is the first day of February, and hopefully the first look at our new 2008 Baltimore Orioles.

Peter Angelos strikes again?

That's what Ken Rosenthal and others are saying on this one.

I don't buy it.

First of all Andy MacPhail would have already tendered his resignation. Considering what that would do to the franchise at this moment, I don't see Angelos vetoing anything MacPhail has put so much time and effort into.

There are reports that Angelos was in the hospital today and he didn't look well. I'm guessing that might have something to do with his no-show at the Warehouse today. Meanwhile Adam Jones is still in Venezuela, not back in the States. He's not in Baltimore but he's not back home either. So the deal is still alive IMO.

I think Angelos wants to look over the deal and that's the holdup. This is a huge deal because we are trading our best pitcher since Mussina. Granted I'm not too happy about that but it's his club and MacPhail did present the Tejada trade to him, so it wouldn't be a stretch for him to want to see this deal as well.

The media coverage of this has been tremendous so for it to die via an Angelos veto - the Orioles would have all that new found shine and some respect just taken right away.

I think Jones will be an Oriole by the end of this week and Bedard will be a Mariner. There's just too much at stake for both teams for them to simply walk away...

Oriole Fans Held Hostage - Day 45

That's right, it's now been 45 days since MacPhail has made a meaningful trade or signing.

Supposedly the Bedard deal is really, really, really, really close, and will happen really, really, really, really, soon. But that's what we've been hearing for a month + now.

Soon. Ugh! I think soon should be one of those words that is banned from the English language, but that's just me being frustrated I guess.

Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider states the deal needs to go down this weekend or its probably not happening at all. So tomorrow most likely we will be freed from this hostage crisis one way or another and can get on with our lives outside of the Orioles.

I probably like the rest of you am sick of logging on and trying to follow every rumor, but I can't help it as I am addicted to this offseason. There was so much promise and hope, to have it go out on a whimper would just be so disappointing.

But then that's just the status quo with this team.

The Tortoise and the Hare

This offseason is a tale of two GM's - Andy MacPhail of the Baltimore Orioles and Billy Beane of the Oakland A's.

And for Oriole fans, we will have to hope this is a case of the classic tale, "The Tortoise and the Hare."

Billy Beane is obviously the Hare, as he's already traded away Dan Haren and Nick Swisher and has received 3-4 blue chip prospects in return.

Andy MacPhail was able to deal Tejada for 5 players, but no real blue chip prospects, but it was a solid trade nevertheless. However since that trade on Dec 12, MacPhail has made no other signficant trades. Now you can see that MacPhail is clearly the Tortoise in this rebuilding race...

Take into account the two quotes from both GM's. This was Beane in a AP release after he made the Haren trade:

"Our status quo as we stood going into the season was mediocrity at best," Beane
said. "That's my opinion. If anything we're taking a step back with the idea
we have a chance to build something very good for a long time. ... The cost of
indecision for us probably would be a bigger mistake."

Now this is MacPhail in today's Baltimore Sun article:

"I'm not really being pressured by anybody," said MacPhail. "It may not be
convenient for everybody's timetable, but as a franchise, we have to live with
the consequences. You have a responsibility to the franchise and the
fans to make sure that you do everything that you can do to try to put the odds in your favor. ... When you make the deal, it has to stand the scrutiny that I've always talked about -- you're convinced you're better off afterward than you were before you made [it]. I'm keeping all my options open."

Two different, viewpoints, as Beane would rather make a deal when it was available than sit back and decide and deliberate on it while MacPhail needs to have the deal be a guaranteed success, for him to pull the trigger. The question is how much of a success does it have to be? At what point do you assume a little risk to make a deal that will better your franchise overall?

We shall see who will win this race, but if MacPhail goes into 2008 without making any more significant trades, the only losers will be the Oriole fans, as MacPhail plods along...

Playing GM

If I were Orioles GM this would be what I would do this offseason, taking into account the other deals that were made.

Roberts to the Cubs for Cedeno, Murton and Gallagher

Bedard, Payton and Millar to the Mariners for Jones, Tillman, Tuiasosopo/Chen, Sherrill and Sexson

Mora and $ to the Phillies for J.A. Happ

Walker and $ to the Braves for Brent Lillibridge

Lineup

SS Lillibridge
CF Jones
RF Markakis
1B Sexson
LF Scott
DH Murton
3B Huff
C Hernandez
2B Cedeno

Bench:
Bynum
Quiroz
Redman
Moore/Chen/Tui

Rotation

Guthrie
Loewen
Cabrera
Patton
Gallagher/Olson/Penn/Albers

Bullpen:

Sherrill
Happ
Bradford
Sarfate
Bierd
Hoey
Burres

Bradford and Huff and possibly Sherrill traded at the deadline.


What do you think?

If this is rebuilding...

The Orioles should hire a new contractor.

Seriously, this offseason has been the most disappointing not frustrating, since the days of Syd Thrift. We've got two big trading chips out on the market that we just can't seem to move and nobody really seems to know why.

Andy MacPhail has got the Warehouse in lockdown so nothing gets out so the "Insider Era" on OriolesHangout.com has come to an end and also as well any reasoning behind why this offseason has moved slower than a snail's pace.

But here's what we do know:

After MacPhail was hired he made two positive impressions albeit not without serious drama. He signed Matt Wieters, who is going to be the next savior for the Orioles at literally the last minute. And then he held onto the human pitching machine known as Steve Trachsel past the July 31st trading deadline and somehow got the Cubs to give up not one but three players for him that could contribute to the majors in some way, unlike Trachsel who is still currently unemployed...

Going into the offseason, there was all sorts of speculation with MacPhail having organizational meetings and coming out with a plan for the offseason and beyond. It looked like we finally have a competant GM running things and the future was bright.

It was a long wait until after the World Series for the GM Meetings to start, and there was much anticipation as it appeared MacPhail would begin our offseason right there, possibly dealing Tejada and Bedard. Unfortunately it was all talk and little action, a theme that would describe our offseason to come to this point. Yet MacPhail came out of the Meetings saying we "batted a thousand."

So thus our hopes were renewed for the next milestone - the Winter Meetings when all sorts of trades were supposed to go down. And day after day, night after night we waited for news of a trade that would never come. However we did sign a backup catcher that was probably 200 times better than Paul Bako and picked up a reliever in the Rule V. So at least we did something, but it was still disappointing considering all the hype leading up to the Meetings and the fact that Florida, surprise surprise, pulled off a blockbuster trade with the Tigers for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, recieving Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller and a bunch of other prospects - the trade the Orioles were supposed to have made. But Haren and Santana were still on the market so there was still hope.

The Dodgers seemed the most likely destination for Bedard and the possiblity of adding Tejada to the deal would make it a blockbuster with rumored names of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw and Adam LaRoche tossed in there. This was going to be the deal and according to certain people was pretty close to happening, until the Dodgers wanted us to pay a ton of Tejada's salary and then it fell apart. So the Dodgers moved onto Plan B with the signing of Kuroda.

There were lots of rumors in December after the Meetings of Tejada to the Angels as well. The Astros were in the mix as were the Giants, but neither were considered as serious. Finally somehow on Dec. 12th, MacPhail suckered Ed Wade and the Astros into trading 5 players for Tejada, OF Luke Scott, LHSP Troy Patton, RHSP Matt Albers. 3B Mike Costanzo, and RHRP Dennis Sarfate. Not a bad haul as Scott will finally fix LF but the Orioles opened up a huge hole at SS by trading Tejada without getting a ML ready SS in return so the default candidate is (gulp) Luis Hernandez. So the Orioles now had holes at CF and SS.

There was still trade talk of Bedard and Roberts now up until Christmas with the Mariners and Reds being the most aggressive for Bedard and the Cubs for Roberts. The Orioles were demanding Adam Jones from the M's and any package from Cinci had to have Jay Bruce. Billy Beane traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks, for only two blue chip prospects, in effect setting the market for Bedard. So now instead of the three to four blue chippers, we are down to two as market value. Yet according to reports MacPhail was still demanding three to four players. And just as it seemed we'd dropped our demands for Bruce from the Reds, they moved on and made a trade with Texas to fill their rotation. A Cubs trade was discussed for Roberts but never came to fruition. So it was coal in the stockings of Oriole fans as the holiday season came and went without a trade being made.

So with the Reds and Dodgers out of the picture, the Mariners seemed to have the best shot at landing Bedard as the new year began. Supposedly the hangup was RHP Brandon Morrow, the Mariners version of Daniel Cabrera, but recently we learned that it may be the reluctance of the M's trading Adam Jones that is holding up the deal. They yanked him from Winter Ball at one point most likely for a trade but then returned him back to action - getting "cold feet" it seemed. And MacPhail has set a deadline of the end of the month before we are going to stopgap FA to fill our holes - Whoopie!

And this is where we sit currently on January 21st. But then there was news recently that the Cubs and Orioles had reached a 7 for 2 swap for Roberts and Bedard only to have it killed by Angelos, something that has been vehemently denied by both clubs. I tend to believe this isn't true as why would MacPhail stick around if Angelos killed one of his trades. The Orioles need him more than he needs them. Yet the Cubs and Orioles seem to be trying to get this done as reports have surfaced the same deal is being worked on.

Personally I think this is a ploy by two friendly GMs. I wouldn't be surprised that Hendry is helping MacPhail put pressure on the Mariners to give into MacPhail's demands by "working" on a deal that would bring both to the Cubs. In exchange MacPhail would trade Roberts for a reasonable price. But we shall see.

In any event, if we hold onto Bedard, this rebuilding has the chance being signifcantly setback if he becomes hurt or performs worse than he did in 2007. And right now it seems we are set to do just that. Roberts would obviously stay if Bedard stays and he's our second biggest trading chip, so if we are truly rebuilding, as much as the female fanbase might decline, he's got to go.

And then there's all the aging dreck we have on our roster - Mora, Gibbons, Millar and Payton. These guys can't go until the big chips are gone supposedly so we are stuck with them as well.

So with holes in CF, SS and solutions being Corey Patterson and Luis Hernandez, we are prepared to go into the 2008 season with an uninspiring group of underachieving players save for Bedard (who doesn't want to be here), Roberts and Markakis.

If that is the attraction at Birdland, I know I won't buy a ticket for admission...

The Case Against Millar

Kevin Millar needs to pack his bags.

And here's why:

The Orioles are rebuilding and Millar is going to be 36 this season, there are two guys behind him namely Scott Moore and Mike Costanzo who are going to need playing time. First base/DH is a log jam right now with Aubrey Huff/Millar/Moore/Gibbons and Costanzo. Gibbons will probably just be given the "Milton in Office Space treatment" but then you've still got Huff/Millar/Moore and Costanzo to sort out.

Aubrey Huff is too valuable just to cut loose right now, and it's not his stripper commentating skills I'm talking about. He has historically performed stellar after the All Star break as we've seen in Houston and then last year in Baltimore when he put up this line:

.309 AVG .389 OBP .508 SLG .897 OPS

That would be only second to Nick Markakis on the team. Now I'm not advocating we keep the guy for the length of his contract, but considering the fact he's put up great #'s in August and September, if we were to pay a little bit of contract, a contender could add him at the deadline for the stretch run when he would be at maximum offensive output and we could get something good back in terms of a prospect.

Now as for Kevin Millar, he has done the exact opposite of Huff, as after the break last year at age 35 he put up this line:

.234 AVG .338 OBP .402 SLG .740 OPS

And the Orioles are thinking of making him the cleanup hitter - with those #'s? Yikes. Markakis is going to have hit more HR's this year to drive himself in, because Millar isn't going to do it. Those Post-All Star break #'s also show that he will likely decline in value further as the season progresses. Contenders know that he'll wear down so they won't give up as much for him at the deadline as they would Huff. And there is a chance at age 36 those #'s will become much worse after the break meaning he could slip from being a Type B FA to a type with no compensation - no draft picks.

Now you also have Dave Trembley trying to reshape this club into one that has pride in their team. And of course, last October, Millar showed a complete lack of pride in his team by selling himself out to Fox in which he did a promo identifying himself as still being part of Red Sox Nation. The Nation - the same group of bandwagoning pink hat wearing fans that invade Camden Yards every year and destroy the park atmosphere. These bunch of locusts that take our beautiful park and destroy any charm it has by their rude, crude behavior, arrogance and attitudes. And then there's the players, who seem just as arrogant as the fans. They showboat on every HR, and think our pitchers "stink." Yes Kevin Millar identified himself as one of them. Now how can Trembley look at Millar as a clubhouse leader when he's wiling to sell himself and his team out for a media spot endorsing the very team and fanbase that Oriole fans hate? Leaders do not do that. People think that Trembley was just like MacPhail and ok with Millar's actions - but Trembley's "no comment" spoke volumes. There is no room for that on Trembley's Orioles.

So there you have the case against Millar, it's not only that he's 36, blocking two younger guys that need playing time and is a threat to drop off the table giving us no draft pick compensation, but he's a sell-out and is no more loyal to the Baltimore Orioles as Reggie Jackson was. And Jackson was no leader...

Welcome!

WELCOME, one and all to Orioles and Lobster. As a devout Oriole fan in Maine deep in the heart of Red Sox or should I say Sux Nation, I will be expressing my thoughts here in this blog on the Orioles and other things in general, but mainly the Orioles.

So let me get started...