JTrea81's Offseason Plan

Well we have another offseason in front of us and the O's are showing promise and seem to be ready to take the next step. Which makes these comments from MacPhail in the Sun so annoying:

"Grow the pitching. It's one of things we need to do well here," MacPhail said. "Look at the reigning world champions. That strategy has been successful in San Francisco, and it can be in Baltimore."

"Our philosophy hasn't changed," MacPhail said. "You may get a deal done early, but by and large, those deals usually occur if a player wanted to return to his former club and they are able to work out something prior to, or shortly after, free agency starts. Or those early deals are preemptive strikes by clubs where the player and the agent decide that they are not going to get better than this and they get it done quickly. We would be much more likely to do the former rather than the latter."

Ah yes, Andy MacPhail who is as timid as ever and is trying to point to another team as the example the Orioles should follow - first the Rays and now the Giants. Yes, if players overachieve good things can happen. But you can't count on that and you can't be passive in free agency. That's what losers do.

So that leads me to Step 1:

1. Fire Andy MacPhail.

Well now that's out of the way, we can get to actually building a winner.

2. Offer 4/68 to Adrian Beltre at 12:01 AM Sunday. - It's time to show the Orioles are serious. No more of this waiting for the market. I'm setting the market. If you want to take Beltre from the Orioles, you are going to have to go all in and Beltre is going to have to turn down some serious cash if he doesn't want to play in Baltimore. I'm betting he'll take it, eventually though the offer may have to go up slightly.

3. At the GM Meetings trade Chris Tillman, Josh Bell and David Hernandez to the Brewers for Prince Fielder (sans extension). Forget about Gonzalez. Fielder will come much cheaper, and is still a bonified threat in the middle of the lineup. He lead MLB in walks and in a down year was still worth 4.1 WAR. I don't extend him because I'll likely be able to re-sign him for less than an extension when he hits FA.

By the Winter Meetings I expect to have my corner IF solved. Next step - SS.

4. Pick up one of likely non tenders - Bartlett or Hardy. Sign them to a 2 year deal.

5. Re-sign Koji Uehara to a 1 year $5 million deal with an option for 2012 to be the closer

6. Sign Eric Hinske to a 1 year $2.5 million deal with an option for 2012. Hinske was a solid option off the bench for the Braves and could do the same for Baltimore

7. Sign Jason Varitek to a 1 year $3 million deal with a team option for 2012. The Orioles need a solid backup catcher so they don't burn out Matt Wieters. Varitek is the best that's out there, and he is a good bat off the bench as well.

8. Sign Jerry Hairston to a 1 year 2.5 million deal to backup the middle IF spots.

9. Sign George Sherrill to a minor league deal with a ST invite after he's non-tendered. Sherrill got lit up against RH hitters but was still excellent vs. LH hitters. I think he could be this year's Ohman.

10. Trade Mike Gonzalez to the Yankees for AJ Burnett and $10 million. The Yankees need a LH reliever and the Orioles need a SP. I think Burnett will do better getting out of NY and he's wanted to pitch in Baltimore. Gonzalez isn't going to be worth the salary the Orioles are paying him. Burnett would be about $13 million a year, which would be about the going rate for a SP with his background.

Your 2011 Orioles:

Lineup:

2B Roberts
RF Markakis
3B Beltre
1B Fielder
CF Jones
DH Scott
C Wieters
LF Pie
SS Hardy/Bartlett

Bench:

OF Reimold
IF Hinske
C Varitek
IF Hairston

Rotation:

SP Guthrie
SP Matusz
SP Burnett
SP Bergesen
SP Arrieta

Bullpen:

LR Patton
MR Hoey
MR Berken
MR Sherrill
MR VandenHurk
SU Johnson
CL Uehara

That team is a 90 game winner on paper IMO and the only huge contract you give out is for Beltre at 4/68. Eventually Fielder will have to be re-signed, but you will already have Beltre and the core of the lineup under contract. You might need to still pick up another arm for the bullpen but that's about it until next offseason

It's these kinds of moves that the Orioles need to make to set themselves up to be a winner. They probably won't make the playoffs in 2011, but might be able to if all goes right, and they won't have to add much at all before 2012 to finally be a playoff team.

Line 'em up

The Orioles lineup has been debated on countless sites, so I figure I'd offer my attempt at maximizing production to start the season.

Roberts and Izturis at #1 and #9 are pretty much a given, as is Markakis at the #3 spot as that is where DT wants to put him, though he's said Nick could hit in the #2 spot as well.

Nolan Reimold is my #2 hitter because of the power and patience he can provide at the top of the order and the fact that he's not a baseclogger either showing decent speed on the basepaths. He's a nice fit at #2 as he and Roberts can set the table for Markakis.

The cleanup spot however is crucial, and unfortunately Andy didn't give Trembley much to work with here. He doesn't have a true cleanup hitter on the team, yet. Now one of Jones, Wieters and Reimold could be that guy, but you do not want any of them swinging for the fences to start the season. There's no need to screw up any of those guys because if they fail, the Orioles are DONE.
There's no backup in the minors and Andy hasn't acquired any help for them in the majors. It's all on them.

Now with that taken into consideration, Luke Scott is my choice for cleanup hitter. He's more expendable that those other guys, and as he's usually better in the first half of the season, the Orioles can take advantage of his power. As he fades, one of the younger guys will most likely have taken off and can take his place. But they don't need that pressure to start.

Jonesy is my #5 hitter because I think that's his best spot with his power and lack of getting on base compared to Reimold and Wieters.

Wieters bats #6, but eventually I think he'll take the #3 spot from Markakis as our most consistent hitter.

Tejada is learning a new position so why bat him high in the order? Players who are learning a new position typically also struggle in that season so Tejada probably won't be as productive to start IMO. But I think he can still provide some nice consistency average wise at the bottom of the order.

Atkins is a reclamation project, so #8 is where he goes until he plays his way off the team, or heats up to justify a move up in the lineup.

So there you have it. To recap:

2B Roberts
LF Reimold
RF Markakis
DH Scott
CF Jones
C Wieters
3B Tejada
1B Atkins
SS Izturis

Eventually I expect the lineup to shake out like this:

2B Roberts
RF Markakis
C Wieters
LF Reimold
CF Jones
DH Scott
3B Tejada
1B Atkins
SS Izturis

We'll have to see how Spring Training goes, but that's my best lineup possibility for now.

Angelos doesn't believe in Andy's plan?

That's sure what it seems like in his latest quote with MLB.com, but we'll get to that.

First of all the article is entitled "Orioles ready to compete in 2010"

Yeah, right...

But moving on, you've got some positive Orioles quotes in here from Andy MacPhail, who has been selling his plan of hope and competing with homegrown players and taking down the Yankee and Red Sox juggernauts:

Tampa Bay, with much lower revenues, a small payroll and quality young players, proved it can beat the Yankees and Red Sox, and play in the World Series.

"Our feeling is if they can do it, we can do it as well," he said. "Last year we showed progress of an individual nature, but moving forward as a team is what we have to do."

Sounds good right?

I asked Angelos on Monday what he thinks happened.

Why?

Ruh roh, get ready for it...

He believes franchises such as the Orioles -- unable to generate huge revenues -- cannot remain competitive, or at least stay even with teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox.

"It's a question of how much money you can generate," he said. "Once in a while there is an exception to that rule, but it cannot be sustained year-to year."

SPLOOOOOOOOSH!!!!


Yes that is the sound of Peter Angelos throwing a bucket of cold water on the hopes and dreams of all Orioles fans that thought we were going to have a perennial contender under Andy MacPhail.

Not on his watch. Peter would apparently rather use the Orioles as a sacrificial lamb for the greater good of baseball, to prove that teams like the Orioles simply can't compete year in and year out with those damn Yankees and Red Sox. And to do that, he simply can't give MacPhail those resources to compete. It would damage his case...

And we all know how Peter hates to lose a case...

So it seems we as Orioles fans have been sold a bill of goods that isn't worth its price tag.

Once again MacPhail tries to give us hope though:

MacPhail puts it this way: "Despite whatever inequities might exist our job is to make our team better. And we certainly had a lot of room to make our team better. We're going to make it as good as we can. That's all we can do."

He can only make it as good as Peter Angelos lets him, and right now it seems Peter is more interested in proving a point, than providing a consistent winner.

It must be pretty boring on Eutaw Street

No, I'm not referencing the Orioles slow-as-molasses offseason developments, rather a new blog on the block about hangouters on certain street that borders the Warehouse.

I guess the slow offseason hasn't generated enough news to cover, so these guys have taken it upon themselves to critique yours truly.

I'm not sure whether to be flattered or not as these guys have devoted not one but several posts about me and analyzed two of my posts on this blog. I never knew that I could be a major conversation piece like that, but when you are about the only one putting up a rebuttal to the Kool-Aid that is being spread around, I guess you are bound to draw some attention, or stalkers...

But thanks for the notice and free publicity guys, and I'm sure I'll be posting more material on here for you to go through. And I have made a few corrections via the spelling, but you won't find any foul language on here, although I guess that makes you seem more professional these days.

But then again some people think anything deemed negative about the Orioles is foul language, so I guess I'll just have to be unprofessional if the situation warrants it.

Now I'm not trying to start "Blog Wars" here as this will be my only post on the matter no matter how boring it gets on "Eutaw Street."

If it was only 2005 again...

Because then I'd be excited about bringing Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada back into the fold.

But right now, lots of Orioles fans want to see this happen.

However, I think the nostalgia is getting to people as these are clearly not the same two players as when they left the Orioles the first time.

Sure we'd all like to see Bedard's nasty curve, but what happens if he can't get it over the plate, or maybe he can throw his curve but his fastball is an 88 MPH souvenir waiting to happen.

Just because Bedard can pitch doesn't mean he will be able to pitch effectively in the majors again.

Remember he had labrum surgery, that's L-A-B-R-U-M surgery. He'll be lucky if he could pitch in the minors effectively again let alone the majors, and that's where I'd start him out. I'd give him a split contract with an invite to ST. Otherwise you risk wasting money and resources for a player that may never see Baltimore. And I doubt Erik would sign that, and would probably try to wait until around the AS break when he could be added to a team that needed pitching help down the stretch.

As for Tejada, he's even older than he was expected to be when we signed him the first time, and although he still hits well for a SS, his defense is no longer adequate at the position. And while a move to 3B makes perfect sense and the Orioles have a hole there, the whole point of acquiring a 3B stopgap is to get somebody better than Bell would be if he were to play the position on Opening Day. You don't get that guarantee with Tejada, and his bat might not be able to make up for that defensive learning curve as it isn't as potent as it once was.

Not to mention, Miguel is a proud man, and thus I doubt he'd just step aside to let Bell take his playing time if Bell was ready.

I realize this is a slow offseason, and that fans want to see some action, but Tejada and Bedard do nothing other than placate a nostalgic fan base. And I know some think it would be extra sweet to sign back the players we traded to kind of stick it to Seattle and Houston, but believe me nobody will care, especially those two teams.

And the only ones stuck will be the Orioles, with two potentially unproductive, past their prime players.

There's a hole at 1B, dear Andy, dear Andy...

Just thought I'd remind him.

Oh but we have Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes and Ty Wigginton to fill the spot.

And Brandon Snyder is in the minors.

So we do have depth, but that depth isn't going to fill the hole. Not when your competition has players like Youkilis and Teixeira at the same spot.

1B has been a consistent problem ever since Rafael Palmeiro left the first time. Since Palmeiro's departure the Orioles have used

Will Clark
Jeff Conine
Chris Richard
Raffy (again)
Kevin Millar
Aubrey Huff

And since Palmeiro left after 1998, the Orioles have not had an .900+ OPS from the position and haven't had an OPS above .815 since 2001.

1B has been a huge void that just has been patched and patched and patched without any thought to the LT.

We've passed on several options, Lee, Konerko, Delgado and Teixeira and yet now we seem to think Snyder might be good enough to fill the spot despite only flashing the skills needed once in a two month stint at Bowie. And most scouts think he won't be more than an average position player at best.

Average isn't going to cut it at 1B in the AL East. It didn't for the other Orioles playoff teams that featured names such as Boog Powell, Eddie Murray and Rafael Palmeiro.

There's a hole at 1B.

So fix it dear Andy. Fix it right now.

Orioles don't want a Holliday

In case you missed it Matt Holliday agreed to terms with the Cardinals on a 7/120 deal.

Now while the majority of Orioles fans are praising this non-move, I see it as another missed opportunity.

Andy has yet to prove he'll go "all in" to land a premium bat to add to this talented core group of players.

Holliday signed for pretty much his fair market value. If there was more competition for his services, he'd be going for at least 7/140.

I think the Orioles should have tried to at least offer 6/114 with a vesting option for a total value of 7/133.

But did they? Nope. Not MacPhail.

There's plenty of mediocre players on the market to sign at bargain bin prices so he'll just continue to wait until all the good talent is gone. And then maybe he can find a 35+ year old player or two he can sign that might be able to find the fountain of youth and buck the trend of aging and have one huge year. And they'd be so desperate to hang on to their glory years, they'd pay Andy to let them have a roster spot.

After all there's a big award to the GM that is the most fiscally conservative, right?

Vlad Guerrero come on down! Miguel Tejada, step right up!

Come to think of it, let's get Raffy and Javy back out of retirement and Sidney from some bar in Aruba, and let's do this thing right like we should of and party like it's 2004.

Hey Vlad's a name that will put people in the seats and everybody loves Miggy right?

Whoops, I think I spoiled Andy's plan.

I'll be looking over my shoulder from now on to see if there are black helicopters following me...